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July 18, 2025

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There is no denying that the broad markets remain in a resilient uptrend off the April 2025 low.  But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from many years of analyzing charts, it’s to remain vigilant during bullish phases.  Even though I’ll assume the uptrend is still intact, that doesn’t mean I can stop looking for signs of potential weakness!

With that in mind, here are three bearish candle patterns that often pop up during bullish market phases.  By looking for these patterns in the stocks and ETFs that you own, you can hopefully get ahead of any corrective moves and take profits before it’s too late!

The Shooting Star Pattern

If you see a long upper shadow, little to no lower shadow, and the open and close are close together near the bottom of the day’s range, then you have identified a shooting star candle pattern.  If you’re familiar with the hammer candle pattern, then you can think of this as a hammer candle but basically everything is upside down!

The chart of AT&T (T) has featured a number of shooting star candles so far in 2025.  Just before the selloff in early April, there was a clear shooting star candle after the March rally.  Then during the rally off the April low, a shooting star pattern in early May suggested that the uptrend phase was nearing an exhaustion point.

The Bearish Engulfing Pattern

One of the most recognizable patterns in the candlestick library, the bearish engulfing pattern represents a short-term rotation from accumulation to distribution.  Basically, a large up candle is followed by a large down candle, and the second day’s “real body” (the open-to-close range) engulfs the range of the first day’s real body.  

Look at the strength in the uptrend for Paramount Global (PARA) going into early June.  Then just before the 4th of July weekend, a bearish engulfing pattern suggests a change of character as the bears take control.  It’s worth noting that these candle patterns are not long-term signals, but rather indicate short-term dynamics.  So a bearish engulfing pattern suggests weakness for the next one to three bars.

The Evening Star Pattern

If you took the bearish engulfing pattern, and then added another small candle in the middle of those two days, then you’d have an evening star pattern.  Now most candlestick textbooks will tell you that the “star” day in the middle should include a gap, so there’s no overlap between that day’s range and the other two candles.  In practice, I’ve found most people ignore this detail and rather look for patterns with enough similarities to this basic structure.

Going back to the AT&T chart we used earlier, we can see an evening star pattern at the end of June.  A big day is followed soon after by a big down day, with a small candle in the middle.  This is a great example of where additional weakness led the price below the 50-day moving average, serving to confirm the bearish outlook as represented by the evening star pattern.

It’s so easy to become complacent during an extended bull market rally.  Investors that regularly scan for bearish candle patterns have an edge, as they can anticipate potential turning points before the uptrend changes in dramatic fashion to a new downtrend phase!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Join Tom as he covers key inflation data, earnings season highlights, and sector rotation trends. He breaks down recent price action in major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with a close look at the 20-day moving average as a support gauge. Tom spotlights standout industry groups such as gambling, semiconductors, software, and aerospace, and shares charts of top-performing stocks like Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and PNC. Tom highlights under-performing areas like insurance brokers and home improvement, then reviews several strong earnings reactions, including Monarch Casino’s 15% after-hours gain.

This video was published on July 17, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.

Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link

Formal saving in developing economies surged to its highest level in more than a decade in 2024, powered largely by the widespread use of mobile phones and digital financial tools, the World Bank said in its new Global Findex 2025 report.

For the first time, 40 percent of adults in low- and middle-income countries reported saving money through a bank or other financial institution—marking a 16-percentage-point increase since 2021 and the sharpest three-year rise since the Findex survey began.

Mobile-money services played an outsized role: 10 percent of adults in these economies used mobile accounts to save, up from 5 percent just three years prior.

‘This is real progress,’ said Bill Gates, chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which supports the survey. ‘More people than ever have the financial tools to invest in their futures and build economic resilience, including women and others previously left behind.’

The data points to a broader trend: digital access is quickly becoming the defining factor in who gets to participate in formal financial systems. While nearly 80 percent of the world’s adults now have a financial account, 1.3 billion people still do not—and most of them live in countries where mobile-phone penetration is already high.

According to the report, around 900 million adults without financial accounts do own mobile phones, and more than half of those have smartphones.

“Financial inclusion has the potential to improve lives and transform entire economies,” said World Bank Group President Ajay Banga. “Digital finance can convert this potential into reality, but several ingredients need to be in place.”

Banga cited the Bank’s work supporting digital identification systems, social protection programs with direct cash transfers, and efforts to modernize national payment infrastructure. “We’re helping to remove regulatory roadblocks—so that people and businesses have the financing they need to innovate and create jobs,” he said.

The Findex also recorded an increase in digital merchant payments. In 2024, 42 percent of adults in developing economies made at least one in-store or online purchase using a card or mobile phone—up from 35 percent in 2021.

Among adults receiving wages or government payments, a growing majority are being paid directly into accounts, a shift that has been shown to reduce leakage and fraud.

At the same time, the rise in digital finance has exposed new gaps in consumer protection and digital literacy. Although 4 billion adults in low- and middle-income countries own mobile phones, only about half use passwords or other basic security tools. This leaves hundreds of millions vulnerable to scams, account theft, or misuse of their data.

For the first time, the report incorporated data on personal device ownership and internet use through a new Digital Connectivity Tracker. It found that 86 percent of adults globally now own a mobile phone, including 68 percent with smartphones.

These figures are even higher in some regions: mobile-phone ownership tops 94 percent in Europe and Central Asia, and smartphone use is highest in East Asia and the Pacific, where 86 percent of adults own one.

Sub-Saharan Africa showed the largest gains in mobile-money use, with 35 percent of adults now saving formally—up 12 percentage points since 2021. Meanwhile, women in low- and middle-income countries have made notable strides in account ownership, closing much of the gender gap: 73 percent now have accounts, compared with just 37 percent in 2011.

Still, challenges persist. In the Middle East and North Africa, only 53 percent of adults have an account, and formal saving remains low at 17 percent. In Latin America and the Caribbean, 70 percent have accounts, but usage patterns vary widely by country and income level.

Gates underscored the stakes: “The case for investing in inclusive financial systems, digital public infrastructure, and connectivity is clear—it’s a proven path to unlocking opportunity for everyone.”

The Global Findex, compiled every three years since 2011, remains the world’s most comprehensive database on how adults access, use, and trust financial services. The 2025 edition surveyed over 130,000 people in more than 120 countries.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Gold has notched an extraordinary first half of 2025, climbing 26 percent in US dollar terms and setting 26 new all-time highs — but the rally now faces a murky and fragile second act shaped by inflation, monetary policy, and unresolved global tensions, according to the World Gold Council’s (WGC) recent mid-year report.

Investors around the globe turned to gold as both a tactical hedge and a strategic store of value, pushing trading volumes to an all-time high of US$329 billion per day in the first six months of the year.

The WGC’s mid-year outlook suggests the precious metal’s momentum could continue, but with significant caveats. Under current consensus forecasts, gold is likely to remain rangebound in the second half, potentially rising another 0 to 5 percent.

However, sharp deviations in macro conditions — particularly those involving stagflation, recession, or worsening geopolitical risks — could lift gold by an additional 10 percent to 15 percent before year-end.

A record-breaking first half

Gold’s 26 percent gain in H1 made it one of 2025’s top-performing major assets. The yellow metal benefited from a rare combination of global factors: a declining US dollar — which had its worst start to a year since 1973 — muted Treasury yields, and a sharp uptick in geopolitical tensions, many linked to US trade policies and regional flashpoints.

These factors created fertile ground for strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), over-the-counter (OTC) markets, and futures.

Gold ETF holdings surged by 397 metric tons in the first half — the highest since August 2022 — bringing total holdings to 3,616 tonnes and pushing total assets under management to $383 billion, a 41 percent increase from the start of the year.

Central banks, too, continued to buy gold, albeit at a moderated pace compared to the record-setting quarters of 2022 and 2023. Although net purchases have slowed, they remain significantly above the pre-2022 average of 500–600 metric tons annually.

Why investors piled in

According to the WGC’s Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), three key drivers contributed to gold’s H1 surge: risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum.

Investor demand stemming from heightened geopolitical and financial risks contributed approximately 4 percent of gold’s return, with half of that explained by a measurable increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index.

A further 7 percent of the return was attributed to changes in opportunity cost, primarily due to the weakening dollar and low bond yields, which made non-interest-bearing gold relatively more attractive.

Lastly, momentum effects, including continued ETF inflows and trend-following investment behavior, added another 5 percent, supporting the metal’s climb through positive feedback loops.

Altogether, these macro and market-based dynamics explained around 16 percentage points of gold’s 26 percent performance in the first six months of the year.

The outlook: Three scenarios for H2

While gold’s fundamentals remain supportive, analysts are cautious about expecting a repeat performance in H2. The WGC outlines three macroeconomic paths that could shape gold’s direction in the second half.

In the base case, moderate global growth and inflation settling near 5 percent could keep real yields subdued, especially if the US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter.

This environment would likely support gold prices modestly, with forecasts pointing to gains of up to 5 percent. Continued interest from ETF and OTC investors could offset softer consumer demand and increased recycling, both of which may act as speed bumps for further upside.

The bull case envisions a sharp rise in gold if economic conditions worsen — either through stagflation or a full-blown recession.

A flight to safety could trigger renewed ETF inflows, central bank diversification away from the dollar, and heavier positioning in COMEX futures. Under this stress-driven rally, gold could surge another 10 to 15 percent in H2, echoing the strong performance seen during previous crises like 2008 and the early pandemic years.

On the flip side, a more stable geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, such as a resolution to major global conflicts or normalization in trade, would dampen demand for gold. In this bear case, stronger yields and renewed investor appetite for risk assets could pull gold down by as much as 12 to 17 percent.

No matter the outcome, gold continues to serve as a resilient portfolio hedge. Its strong showing in the first half of 2025 reaffirmed its utility in volatile markets, particularly as traditional safe havens like US Treasuries struggle to deliver.

Even if jewelry and retail demand sees pressure, structural support could come from institutional players — including reports that Chinese insurers are quietly upping their gold allocations.

For now, gold may consolidate. But should conditions turn, the metal still has plenty of room to move, in either direction.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

President Donald Trump said Wednesday it was ‘highly unlikely’ he would fire Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve.

His statements, made in the Oval Office, come less than 24 hours after telling a room full of Republican lawmakers that he was considering doing so.

“No, we’re not planning on doing anything,” Trump told reporters in response to a question about whether he wanted to fire Powell.

“I don’t rule out anything but I think it’s highly unlikely unless he has to leave for fraud,” Trump said, while criticizing Powell’s management of a Fed renovation project that the White House had recently floated as a pretext for removing the Fed chair.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on June 25. Kent Nishimura / Getty Images

The president had asked GOP lawmakers late Tuesday how they felt about firing the Fed chair, according to a senior White House official. They expressed approval for firing him. The president then indicated he likely would soon but that no final decision had been made.

Still, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., posted on X on Tuesday night that Powell’s firing was ‘imminent,’ something that prompted a sell-off in stock futures before Wednesday’s market open. By noon Wednesday, major stock indexes had recovered to trade almost flat on the day.

CBS News first reported the meeting. A Fed official declined comment to CNBC on the report about the Trump meeting Tuesday, which came after Republicans blocked a procedural vote on crypto legislation that the president favors.

Trump and other White House figures have launched a multipronged attack on Powell to push the central bank to lower its key borrowing rate. Most recently, they have blasted Powell over renovations to the Fed’s Washington headquarters, raising suspicion that Trump could try to remove him for cause.

A recent Supreme Court decision indicated that the president does not have the authority to remove Fed officials at will.

In a CNBC interview Wednesday, Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, repeated that “I don’t see” Trump firing Powell. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also told Bloomberg News on Tuesday that he didn’t expect Trump to move in that direction.

However, Luna, who on Tuesday joined with other party members in blocking the crypto initiative, said on X that a move against Powell is forthcoming.

“Hearing Jerome Powell is getting fired! From a very serious source,” she said, later adding, “I’m 99% sure firing is imminent.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Coca-Cola in the United States will begin to be made with cane sugar, but the company did not explicitly say that was the case when it was asked later about Trump’s claim.

Trump said Wednesday afternoon on Truth Social that he had been speaking to Coca-Cola about using cane sugar in the sodas sold in the United States and that the company agreed to his idea.

‘This will be a very good move by them — You’ll see. It’s just better!’ Trump wrote in the post.

But Coca-Cola did not commit to the change when NBC News asked it later about Trump’s post.

‘We appreciate President Trump’s enthusiasm for our iconic Coca-Cola brand,’ a company spokesperson said in a statement. ‘More details on new innovative offerings within our Coca-Cola product range will be shared soon.’

Donald Trump drinks a Diet Coke during the ProAm of the LIV Golf Team Championship at Trump National Doral Golf Club, on Oct. 27, 2022, in Doral, Fla.Lynne Sladky / AP file

It remains unclear whether Coca-Cola agreed to Trump’s proposal or whether the beloved soda will still be made with corn syrup.

The Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again initiative, named for the social movement aligned with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has pushed food companies to alter their formulations to remove ingredients like artificial dyes.

Coca-Cola produced for the U.S. market is typically sweetened with corn syrup, while the company uses cane sugar in some other countries, including Mexico and various European countries.

Coca-Cola announced in 1984 it was going to “significantly increase” the amount of corn syrup it was using in its U.S. products, The New York Times reported at the time.

Coca-Cola said it would use corn syrup to sweeten bottled and canned Coke, as well as caffeine-free Coke, but left itself “flexibility” to use other sweeteners, like sugar or high-fructose corn syrup, the Times reported.

Kennedy has criticized how much sugar is consumed in the American diet and has said updated dietary guidelines released this summer will advise people to ‘eat whole food.’

Trump has been known to enjoy Coca-Cola products. The Wall Street Journal reported that a Diet Coke button, which allows him to order the soda on demand, has joined him in the Oval Office for both of his terms.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS