In today’s “Weekly Market Recap”, EarningsBeats.com’s Chief Market Strategist Tom Bowley looks ahead to determine the likely path for U.S. equities after the weekend bombing of Iran nuclear sites. Are crude prices heading higher? Will energy stocks outperform? What additional roadblocks might we have to negotiate after the latest Fed meeting and policy statement? Could we see fallout from June monthly options expiring on Friday? Check it all out in the video below….

Happy trading!

Tom

The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) is trading at a moment of truth as its 5-day SMA returns to the 200-day SMA. A bearish trend signal triggered in early March. Despite a strong bounce from early April to mid May, this signal remains in force because it has yet to be proven otherwise. Today’s report will show how to quantify signals and reduce whipsaws using the percentage difference between two SMAs.

First note that MDY is lagging SPY and QQQ because its 5-day has yet to cross above its 200-day. The latter two saw bullish crosses in mid May, over a month ago. A bullish breakout in MDY would reflect broadening upside participation, which would be bullish for stocks. The PerfChart below shows SPY and QQQ with year-to-date gains. MDY and IWM are down year-to-date. 

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TrendInvestorPro continues to follow the leading uptrends and recent breakouts in metals-related ETFs. These include gold, silver, palladium, platinum, copper and associated miners. Tech-related ETFs are also leading and featured in our reports/videos. Click here to learn more and get full access to our research.

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The chart below shows MDY hitting its moment of truth as the 5-day SMA (black line) bumps against the underside of the 200-day SMA (blue line). A bearish cross occurred in late February and this signal has yet to be reversed. However, I am not watching for a simple 5/200 cross. Instead, I want to see the 5-day SMA clear the 200-day SMA by a certain percentage. This is a signal threshold.

The indicator window shows Percent above MA (5,200,1), which measures the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. See the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for details. I placed signal thresholds at +3% and -3% to reduce whipsaws. A bullish signal triggers with a move above +3% and a bearish signal triggers with a move below -3%. At the very least, this indicator value is still negative and bearish. A move above 0 would reflect a positive 5/200 cross, while a move above +3% would trigger a bullish trend signal. This indicator is part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

The signal threshold levels depend on your personal preferences and trading styles. Tighter thresholds generate earlier signals, but with more whipsaws. Wider thresholds reduce whipsaws, but increase signal lag. This is always the tradeoff. I prefer plus/minus 1 percent when using the 5/200 cross for SPY. I widened these thresholds to plus/minus 3 percent for MDY because it is more volatile.

TrendInvestorPro continues to follow the leading uptrends and recent breakouts in metals-related ETFs. These include gold, silver, palladium, platinum, copper and associated miners. Tech-related ETFs are also leading and featured in our reports/videos. Click here to learn more and gain immediate access. 

Some Sector Reshuffling, But No New Entries/Exits

Despite a backdrop of significant geopolitical events over the weekend, the market’s reaction appears muted — at least, in European trading. As we assess the RRG best five sectors model based on last Friday’s close, we’re seeing some interesting shifts within the top performers, even as the composition of the top five remains unchanged.

The jump in Technology’s ranking is particularly noteworthy, especially when compared to Consumer Discretionary’s drop to the bottom of the list (position #11). These two sectors often move in tandem, so this divergence is worth keeping an eye on.

1. (1) Industrials – (XLI)
2. (5) Technology – (XLK)*
3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
4. (2) Utilities – (XLU)*
5. (4) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
6. (7) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
7. (6) Financials – (XLF)*
8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
9. (11) Energy – (XLE)*
10. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)
11. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*

Weekly RRG Analysis

On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, the Technology sector is showing impressive strength. Its tail is well-positioned in the improving quadrant, nearly entering the leading quadrant with a strong RRG heading. This movement explains Technology’s climb back into the top ranks.

Industrials remains the only top-five sector still inside the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG. It continues to gain relative strength, moving higher on the JdK RS-Ratio axis while slightly losing relative momentum. All in all, this tail is still in good shape.

Utilities, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples are all currently in the weakening quadrant. Utilities and Staples show negative headings but maintain high RS-Ratio readings, giving them room to potentially curl back up. Communication Services is starting to curl back up toward the leading quadrant.

Daily RRG

Switching to the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture:

• Industrials: In the lagging quadrant with stable relative momentum, this sector needs an improvement in relative strength soon to remain in the top position.
• Technology: Almost static at a high RS-Ratio reading, indicating a stable relative uptrend.
• Communication Services: Back in the leading quadrant and still moving higher.
• Utilities and Consumer Staples: Low readings but curling back up, with Utilities already re-entering the improving quadrant.

This daily view suggests that Utilities and Consumer Staples might maintain their positions in the top five, while raising some concerns about Industrials’ short-term performance.

Industrials: Resistance Roadblock

The industrial sector is grappling with overhead resistance between 142.5 and 145. This struggle is impacting the raw relative strength line, which has rolled over, causing the RS-Momentum line to curl as well.

The RS-Ratio remains elevated and moving higher, but the resistance level is a key area to watch.

Technology: Strong Despite Struggles

XLK is facing overhead resistance in the 240 area for the third consecutive week. From a relative perspective, however, the sector looks robust. The raw RS line broke from its falling channel and is clearly moving higher, dragging both RRG lines upward and pushing XLK into the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG.

Communication Services: Balancing Act

XLC is battling resistance around 105, with its raw RS line remaining inside its channel but slowly curling up against rising support. To maintain its position, we’ll need to see either higher prices for XLC or lower prices for SPY in the coming weeks.

Utilities & Consumer Staples: Range-Bound Challenges

Both of these sectors are stuck within their respective trading ranges, causing their RRG lines to roll over. With SPY moving higher, their relative strength is under pressure, positioning both tails in the weakening quadrant on negative RRG headings.

Portfolio Performance Update

From a portfolio perspective, we’re seeing a slight improvement, but the underperformance still persists. We’re continuing to track movements and position the portfolio according to the mechanical model that is the foundation of this best five sectors series.

Looking Ahead

With no changes to the top five sector positions, we’ll be closely monitoring how this selection holds up in the coming week. The divergence between Technology and Consumer Discretionary is particularly intriguing, and the struggles with overhead resistance across several sectors could prove pivotal.

Imho, the limited market reaction to the weekend’s geopolitical events (so far) suggests a certain resilience, but we’ll need to stay alert for any delayed impacts or shifts in sentiment.

#StayAlert and have a great week ahead. –Julius

This week, we’re keeping an eye on three major stocks that are reporting earnings. Two of them have been beaten down and are looking to turn things around, while the third has had a tremendous run and is looking to keep its extraordinary momentum going. Let’s take a closer look at each one.

Could FedEx Be Ready for a Comeback?

FedEx (FDX) had a rough go last quarter, missing its EPS estimates and slashing its full-year outlook thanks to softening demand and losing a USPS contract. That combination of earnings shortfall and downgraded guidance spooked investors, with FDX’s stock price tumbling more than 10% in the days following the release. After “Liberation Day,” share prices traded even lower.

FedEx continues to take steps to cut costs and segment spinoffs to streamline and turn the stock around. Can FedEx do it fast enough? Any positive forward guidance will be critical to drive a sustained rebound in the stock’s price.

From a technical perspective, FDX shares have bounced back to the levels traded after its last quarterly results. The stock price is coiling between its longer-term downtrend and near-term uptrend from the lows.

The good news is that shares have recaptured their 50-day moving average; the bad news is that price is bumping up to its longer-term downtrend. Something’s got to give.

• The average move post-earnings is +/-5.6%. 
• An upward move should break it out of this downtrend and set shares on a path towards its 200-day moving average, which is just under $255.
• A downward move would break the near-term downtrend, but could pause around the 50-day moving average and a consolidation area around $215.

Playing this stock into earnings has been a fool’s game. Wait for the dust to settle before jumping in. That could mean:

• A break below the 50-day moving average and a move to the $200 level.
• A gap up, which could mean the end of this downtrend and should be chased to the 200-day moving average.

Micron: Time for a Breather?

Micron Technology (MU) has been on fire since selling off during the “Liberation Day” chaos. It broke below a major support area, but quickly recaptured it.

The pendulum price action was a wild swing in the opposite direction. MU’s stock price broke out above a major resistance area and is in a precarious position as Micron heads into Wednesday’s quarterly results.

MU’s stock price is extremely overbought and may struggle to keep this upward momentum going. We have seen other tech stocks, such as Broadcom (AVGO) and CrowdStrike (CRWD), experience similar moves going into earnings. Both stocks reported solid quarters and guided higher, yet sold off.

Given the 100% gain from its April 7 lows, the overbought condition, and natural support areas (old resistance) at the $114 area, a pullback to here seems logical. The area below $114 to watch is the rising 200-day moving average, which is around $96 and seems like a better entry point than chasing the stock now.

Good earnings numbers should see a small fade to the $114 area and then hold. That is what happened in other stocks with big run-ups into earnings: a fade back to the recent breakout. If Micron reports numbers below estimates and/or weak guidance, expect a deeper pullback to the 200-day, which should act as strong support if tested again. Any further rally should be faded as MU nears $150 and all-time highs. That could put its relative strength index (RSI) into the 90s; historically, that doesn’t hold for very long.

Nike (NKE): Waiting for a Spark

Nike (NKE) has traded lower after eight of its last nine earnings reports, including the last six in a row. Shares are still down 66% from their 2021 all-time highs and, year-to-date, are lower by 21%.

It has been a tough environment for the iconic sports brand. Shareholders have been anxiously waiting for new management to turn things around, but high inventories and now tariff concerns have stymied any sense of a sustainable rally.

Technically speaking, things aren’t looking good. Investors are looking for any sign of a turnaround or a tradable bottom. While there has been minor progress coming off the lows, there’s nothing to indicate the stock is back.

Momentum indicators have turned bearish. The RSI has crossed below its midline, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) had a bearish crossover.

Entering the week, the stock is at a good support level around $59, which brings the 50-day moving average and recent lows into play. While NIKE’s stock price has a lot to reverse and looks tempting, there is still much overhead resistance to give the all clear and jump into the trade, based on this week’s earnings. Positive news could see a tradeable upside to its 200-day moving average, which should then be faded.

For this stock to finally reverse, it needs more time and a few quarters of solid growth. It may be wiser to buy shares on a breakdown towards its lows around $52. If that occurs, then expect it to hold and rally back over the weeks ahead of its next quarterly result. 

The Bottom Line

This week’s earnings action is a good reminder to stay patient and be selective. Watch how these stocks react after earnings rather than trying to forecast the move. Sometimes, waiting for confirmation is the best strategy, especially when markets are so reactive.

In this video, Mary Ellen opens with a look at the S&P 500, noting that the index remains above its 10-day average despite a brief pullback—a sign of healthy market breadth. She points to ongoing sector leadership in technology, while observing that energy and defense stocks are breaking higher and offering fresh opportunities. From there, Mary Ellen shares stocks that experienced strong earnings, talks AI-related stocks that are on the move higher, and looks at winners and losers following the passage of the Genius Act.

This video originally premiered on June 20, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.